We’ve had a bit of a respite in the high price of gasoline lately – down to “only” about $3.80 per gallon in my neighborhood as compared to about $4.25 a few weeks ago. Those kinds of numbers are far out of kilter with my own life experience. Why, I can remember filling the tank of my old Plymouth with gasoline at 21.9 cents per gallon!

The rises and falls in the price of gasoline roughly translates to variations in the price of heating oil, which heats a great many houses in the Northeast. In turn, the prices of both gasoline and heating oil are approximately geared to crude oil, which of course is the feedstock for both of them. The fact situation is further complicated by the fact that heating oil and Diesel fuel are nearly the same product.

The New York Harbor price of heating oil reached a high of $4.1751 per gallon on July 11, 2008. It has since steadily declined to a low of $3.1191 last Friday, August 15. What do the Candlesticks tell us about the outlook for heating oil prices this coming Winter?

Unfortunately, they – and other Indicators – are saying that prices should move higher soon. Technical readings of the heating oil charts support possible prices in the relatively short term at $3.65 to$3.80 per gallon at New York Harbor. This price does not, of course, count delivery charges or reflect the actual price as delivered into the homeowner’s fuel tank.

Does that mean that houses will be cold this coming Winter? Well, perhaps not cold, but more sweaters are likely to be worn indoors, and thermostat will probably be set lower.

Additionally, we have just received direct testimony from a friend on the scene in Vermont that the leaves there are already beginning to turn, and that the locals are saying that this foretells a very cold Winter.

So when the stores put away their remaining back-to-school merchandise and begin advertising with Santas and fake Christmas trees immediately after Labor Day (!), watch for sales of Winter clothing and take advantage if the price is right.