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Treat commodity futures and commodity options conjecture as a heavy business. Otherwise it's no different than gambling at the casinos. You need to be better than the bulk of the traders out there to earn money. The solidly worthwhile futures traders ALL have trading plans and are trained.
Here is a fast trading tip. I have a long term cutting market model I use for writing commodity options for premium collection. It is made of two sub-models for each commodity, bull and bear. These are reasonably complex models with a fair amount of PC code. Just today I started messing with an easy moving average that blocked signals if against the major trend. It made a measurable difference in the long term performance! I found the proportion of win / loss went up as well as the profit / loss proportion.
Most commodity futures traders are reckless with their trading. Many just guess or look for tips. They come, play for one or two months, get blown out and never come back. Then a new group comes in and the cycle repeats. Only a tiny p.c. hangs around long enough to learn how to get to break even. Even that might be a massive achievement. Later with endurance, learning and good fortune, they pull it off by making some cash yearly.
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If you're real assured and have a sound reason to stay in after a contravention of the 1st low you bought, averaging in once and most likely twice may be a good system. This is done into the following lower spike, and it takes nerve to do. If the futures market then breaks the second low you purchased, liquidate and take some time off. Obviously, you are not seeing well, trading well and need to get away for a bit.
What I'm making an attempt to avoid being the bent to trade a ten thousand account out of control... Hazarding 30+ on each trade because there's 100,000 more sitting at home. There's one exception and a fair excuse to send in additional cash. If there is a cluster of high probability trades that you'll miss as the account is too little, then this is a good excuse to add more. We never know which high likelihood trade will work out and, which won't [*T]. Staying under 7.5 risk for each commodity trade is the goal, with no regard for what account size you have.
We wish to caution once again that at last no measure is a guaranty or guarantee against risk or losses. Previous performance isn't necessarily a suggestion of future results. Futures' trading involves high perils and isn't for everybody. We are simply sharing with you what we feel is the best system by which to choose an executive.
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